Peruse Newsletter February 17, 2023

EiE Nigeria & SBM Intelligence Release 2023 Election Forecast

February 17, 2023 • Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes

Friday, February 17, 2023

“The right to vote is the cornerstone of a free and democratic society.

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-

Kofi Annan

 

(Former Secretary-General of the United Nations)

Dear Active Citizen,As a leading civil society organisation, Enough is Enough (EiE) Nigeria believes in the importance of promoting democracy and the free, fair and credible elections that are at its foundation. As a result, EiE Nigeria commissioned SBM Intelligence to do a nationwide survey of likely voters on salient issues regarding the 2023 elections, featuring 11,534 respondents with 78% engaged face-to-face and 22% via telephone.

The data suggest that the Labour Party (LP)’s Peter Obi and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)’s Atiku Abubakar could garner enough votes over a sufficient number of states across four of the country’s six geopolitical zones to meet the constitutional requirement of scoring 25% in at least 24 states. This outcome, however, is complicated by the fact that the All Progressives Congress (APC)’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is likely to do well in two of the country’s biggest voting states—Kano and Lagos—and the heavily populated south-west and north-west states, thereby winning the popular vote, although reaching the 50%+1 bar may be a stretch too far.

The forecast also predicts which party is most likely to get the most seats in the Senate and in the House of Representatives. Both poll predictions may come as a surprise to many! Furthermore, most citizens are focused on the presidential election with a 100% response rate. Only 35% responded to questions about the governorship elections, while the interest in state legislature elections was 14%. More details on the candidate’s chances of winning; the impact of ethnicity & religion; and issues of interest are available here.

Stay safe this weekend.The EiE Nigeria Team